POLITICS
Hope on the Ropes
by Stump Connolly
Just when Barack Obama thought it was safe to put away petty politics and
focus on the fall elections, Hillary Clinton sent a signal Tuesday that it’s
not over til it’s over, and even then it never hurts to put an anvil
on top of a Clinton gravestone just to make sure.
Tuesday’s primary results did little to alter the delegate race (Clinton gained a net 15) in the slow crawl of the Democratic candidates toward the finish line. But if Clinton can frame her Ohio and Texas victories in the right light, she can re-focus the race in the binocular eyes of the all-important superdelegate spectators and, perhaps, the reporters who are watching them.
It was a stunning turnaround for the New York senator, as she acknowledged in her election night acceptance speech. “For everyone here in Ohio and across America who’s ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, and for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you,” she said.
It was also the start of a new rough and tumble phase of the campaign -- one where hope now must take a backseat to politics as usual. Obama’s promise of “change we can believe in” has taken him far. Soaring rhetoric, astute planning for the complex primary schedule, sharp field organizing and a masterful Internet operation gave his campaign a winning edge and a frontrunner’s swagger, especially after the victories started mounting in February.
But just when the Obama Express seemed ready for liftoff, it stalled -- brought low in a downdraft of negative advertising about his readiness to answer a national emergency at 3 AM and bruising counterpunches from Clinton questioning his Tony Rezko ties and recent flubs handling an advisor’s NAFTA discussion with Canadian officials.
The counterattack on his character should have been expected from a campaign team that invented the term “rapid response." In the range of American politics, it was hardly out of bounds (although a whisper campaign about his Muslim roots and circulation of a silly costume photo were.) But the Obama camp was strangely oblivious to the onslaught and paid the price. Twenty percent of Ohio and Texas voters said they decided on their candidate in the last three days before the election, and most decided in favor of Clinton.
What hurt Obama’s image most were not the specifics of the charges, but the growing sense among blue collar voters that he is flying so high in his lofty appearances at campus campaign rallies he is out of touch with the everyday concerns of people on the ground about their jobs, health care and a rapidly worsening economy.
Whether or not Clinton has all the “Solutions for America,” she at least was offering them up while Obama was more likely to sneak his own program initiatives into a tried-and-true stump speech so familiar to audiences they shout the signature “Yes We Can” response before he even asks the question.
Going forward, Obama will have to step back from all those rallies and engage Clinton, yes again, in more debates and other forums where he must argue for the supremacy of his positions. He will also have to come out of his corner ready to dirty his hands, and her reputation, with a few counterpunches of his own.
As David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, put it after the Texas and Ohio losses, “If she wants to make issues like ethics and disclosure and law firms and real estate deals and all that stuff issues, as I’ve said before I don’t know why they’d want to go there, but I guess that’s where they’ll take the race.”
It is hard to say who the political landscape favors in the months ahead. There are 12 more contests to go (if you count Guam) with an estimated 5 million more voters still to cast ballots before Puerto Rico chooses the last 55 pledged delegates on June 7. First up are the Wyoming caucuses Saturday and a Mississippi primary next Tuesday, both likely to go Obama’s way. Then there is a six-week lull before the Pennsylvania primary April 22, a dangerous downtime where every move will be a media play.
Once the battle shifts back to real people casting real votes, Pennsylvania should favor Clinton. It has a similar voter profile to Ohio and, as in Ohio, Clinton enjoys the endorsement of Governor Ed Rendell and the support of much of the Democratic party apparatus.
Clinton forces will emphasize that the 158 delegates up for grabs in the Pennsylvania primary are the largest big state cache left along the campaign trail, the last of many big states where she has run best. But even if Obama loses there, he can look forward to the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6 -- where 187 total delegates are at stake -- and the Kentucky and Oregon primaries May 20 -- where another 103 are in play – confident that the voter profiles in those states give him ample opportunity to offset any Pennsylvania setback.
The irony, of course, is that this seesaw battle to accumulate the last pledged delegates will put neither over the top. Even if Obama or Clinton wins all the remaining states, neither can gain the nomination without substantial support from the 796 superdelegates.
So keep your eye on that grandstand and the superdelegates watching the horses come into the stretch. These are not voters motivated by hope or economic fears. They are governors, senators, congressmen, distinguished party elders and 450 members of the Democratic National Committee who know their way around the track and long ago forswore idealism for the pleasant sensation of standing with their horse in the winner’s circle.
And somewhere in that bunch don’t be surprised to see a relief column form – perhaps sooner than later when the math shows it can be big enough to provide a winning margin – to ride in and rescue one candidate or another. And don’t be surprised to see Al Gore riding the lead horse.
