POLITICS
Air Wars vs. The Ground Game
By Stump Connolly
Say goodbye to the ground game. The days of house parties in Iowa and coffee shops in New Hampshire are over, and all the churches in South Carolina have voted.
With Super Tuesday looming ahead, the presidential race now moves to the air and the battlefield has widened, considerably.
On Tuesday, 23 states will hold primaries or caucuses. They will bring out about 20 million voters in states where the absentee ballots alone already exceed the total votes cast in Iowa, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Nevada, and South Carolina combined.
This is the phase of the campaign when retail politics gives way to mass communication. That is usually defined as a wave of political spots just before Election Day that wallpaper our television sets making the candidates about as ubiquitous as the Empire carpet man.
But this is anything but a usual year in politics. This is a year that stretches the imagination of even the best political pundits.
“They call us the Best Political Team on television,” John King confided to colleagues on CNN during the New Hampshire primary, “but I’ve covered six presidential campaigns and I’ve never seen anything like this.”
Where Are We Now
We have reached this point in American politics on the back of too much money seeking too much influence.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama started the game with $100 million in their kitty. John McCain raised and spent $35 million before he decided to go it alone. Mitt Romney has shelled out $80 million ($35 million from his own personal fortune) just to stay in the race and says he’s willing to spend another $40 million to get another gold medal or two. (Montana is still up for grabs.)
But it’s not a money game this year.
McCain-Feingold, the hard-fought 2002 campaign reform bill aimed at taking money out of politics, is so last time around. Even McCain doesn’t mention it on the campaign trail. Feingold. Who’s he?
This year, the money seems to takes care of itself.
This year, it’s war.
The Generals
The battle lines have hardened between the Clinton and Obama camps.
While the candidates hop scotch across the country ginning up photo ops for the 24/7 news cycle, the campaign headquarters for both are bustling with field organizers, media planners, internet specialists, call center volunteers and other below the radar campaign workers who handle the mundane mechanics of a campaign.
To a large extent, they are reflections of the top strategists in each camp, Mark Penn for Clinton and David Axelrod for Obama, who are the Rommel and Patton of this war.
The
Clinton campaign runs out of headquarters in Washington, where Penn is the
consummate insider. When he is not dabbling in politics, Penn is the unlikely
CEO of Burson-Marstellar, one of the world’s largest public relations
firms. He is a master of polling data and his approach to politics is hardly
a secret.
He recently authored a book –– “Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes” –– that argues “there is no One America anymore, or Two or Three or Eight. In fact, there are hundreds of Americas, hundreds of new niches made up of people drawn together by common interests."
Axelrod has planted Obama’s headquarters in Chicago, where his roots go back to his early 80’s days as a political reporter for the Chicago Tribune.
Inspired by a stint as press secretary to the late Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, he gave up journalism to become a political consultant and has had a hand in all the major races in Illinois for the last 20 years, including Obama’s Senate run and five campaigns for Mayor Richard M. Daley.
His
gut feel for what people are thinking, coupled with smooth commercials that
sell his candidates as just like you, has won his firm work across the country
for, among others, Senators Clinton and Edwards. [For a more incisive comparison
of the two, please see Jonathan Alter’s recent column in Newsweek.
LINK]
While Penn tries to stay out of the campaign limelight, Axelrod’s finest moments often come on the campaign trail where his trenchant analysis of the political landscape makes him a welcome guest in the press spin rooms.
One recent example, his comment to New York Times reporter Adam Nagourney three days ago on the race so far:
“This race requires everyone to sort of throw away their old assumptions and start thinking anew. The important thing is to measure on Feb. 5 where we are in terms of delegates. My guess is one of us will be ahead, but not decisively, and one of us will be behind, but not decisively, and this will go on for a long time.”
The Troops
Neither Penn or Axelrod immerse themselves in the mechanics of a campaign. For that, they have people.
The Clinton camp divides functions among a number of high-profile operatives at the top. Penn, who has been advising the Clintons since 1996, sets strategy with a number of outside advisors. Howard Wolfson, her Senate press secretary, handles the media. Karen Hicks is the senior field organizer; and Clinton’s old friend and scheduler, Patti Solis Doyle is the campaign manager.
Obama’s camp is more fluid. Axelrod relishes the campaign trail action so he relies on his partner, David Plouffe, to run the home office. Plouffe, in turn, has cherry-picked his key operatives based on their special expertise.
Many have never worked in a political campaign. To Plouffe’s credit, he funnels their good ideas up to Axelrod as often as he hands down Axelrod’s strategic decisions to the troop.
What both understand is that any campaign strategist worth his salt surrounds himself with good people. In a campaign of this scope, that’s a big shaker to fill. The payrolls of both campaigns carry over 1,000 people. Now we will see who has the best salt.
Round One - The Ground Game
The advantage here belongs to Obama, but only slightly.
He pulled a rabbit out of the hat with his caucus victory in Iowa, thanks to a year of advance work establishing a network of local organizers.
But the Clinton field organization in Iowa was equally as strong.
“We identified 90,000 potential Clinton caucusgoers there, contacted 80,000 of them and turned out 75,000. And we were still swamped,” Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a Clinton advocate, complained.
The difference in Iowa proved to be the student vote. Courting their favor, recruiting them to his cause in campus appearances, Obama pursued a strategy that many professionals thought was ill-advised.
Howard Dean lost Iowa in 2004 expecting the student vote to carry him in the primary. John Kerry got four million more votes in the general election from young people, but it took a lot of rock concerts to get them even registered.
This year in Iowa the students came back early from Christmas vacation, made up 22% of the caucus attendees, and voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
In New Hampshire, it was Clinton’s turn to show off her field organization. She had strong ties to the state’s Democratic party officials and, at their direction, poured 6,000 volunteers into the streets to bring out her vote. In the blue-collar neighborhoods of Manchester and Nashua, they turned out in record numbers while Obama’s campus support never materialized.
In South Carolina, Clinton once again relied on the indigenous political organizations -- otherwise known as the black churches. She outbid Obama for the support of one key pastor and courted the favor of others (with “love offerings,” as they are known in these parts.) But Obama out-flanked her (with more than a little unwitting help from a certain former president.)
Genuine differences in the style of each candidate’s field operations rose to the surface in the wake of Obama’s South Carolina victory. Clinton has a robust network of field organizers across the country centered in the old school tradition of local party endorsements and union support.
Obama’s field operations are more adventuresome – shut out of the black churches in South Carolina, his campaign organized the beauty parlors -- and integrally linked to the campaign through the Internet.
Zack Exley, a former Internet organizing director for MoveOn, looked into the Obama operation last August and concluded its mix of email, web tools and old school organizing techniques “could rewrite the rules of presidential politics.” [LINK]
“Two things have changed the calculus of presidential primary organizing and now raise the possibility of a hard-fought precinct-by-precinct field battle in states as large as California and as numerous as (the) February 5 primaries and caucuses,” Exley wrote.
“First, an unprecedented amount of money is now available. . . Second, use of campaign websites now makes hundreds of thousands of volunteer campaign workers available to campaigns in states before a single staffer is hired to work in them. At virtually no cost, campaigns are able to contact those volunteers via email, turning them out to events and trainings and giving them valuable work to do for the campaign in key states.”
Obama’s key early decision was to hold dozens of three-day training sessions for organizers called “Obama Camp” in Chicago (most aimed at Iowa) and around the country in California, New York, New Jersey, Georgia, and Massachusetts.
Specially-selected local volunteers began setting up Obama precinct organizations in each state. They now get maps, instructions, talking points and campaign materials by email, and even have their own blogs and Facebook community.
The names of volunteers who sign up for the campaign on Obama’s website (the chief source of campaign help) are instantly dispatched to the nearest field operations center. Within minutes, literally, the volunteers receive a personal email from an organizer that links them to a dozen or so ways they can participate in the campaign.
Mobilizing this field organization to work targeted congressional districts this weekend is a key to Obama’s Super Tuesday strategy.
Round Two – The Air Wars
In the halcyon days of 2007, when both campaigns were flush with money, Super Tuesday was supposed to be a mopping up operation.
Momentum from a string of early primary wins was supposed to carry a frontrunner into the big states where a last push of television advertising would bring in enough delegates to put him or her over the top and drive opponents from the field.
But the early primaries did not go as expected. With only $25 million left in the warchest, The Clinton and Obama campaigns are now faced with the prospect of buying advertising time in 21 of the 50 most expensive media markets in America, including New York (#1), Los Angeles (#2), Chicago (#3), Philadelphia (#4), San Francisco (#5), and Boston (#6).
Time buying for political ads on television is a stock in trade of politics, but the calculation of what to buy is as tricky as everything else in this campaign.
It’s not based on the standard cost per thousand viewers (CPM), or even cost per thousand voters. The calculation this year comes down to cost per delegate –– in a political landscape where Clinton and Obama are almost sure to evenly split the delegate totals in half the places they are competing.
The Problem in a Nutshell
The problem in a nutshell is two-fold: 1) Democratic party rules award delegates in a state to the candidates based on the proportion of the votes they receive; and 2) within each state, two thirds of those delegates are divided up based on how each candidate does in each congressional district.
In congressional districts with an even-numbered four delegates, Clinton or Obama will have to win by over 65 percent to avoid a 50-50 split. In districts with an odd-number of delegates (3, 5 or 7), the math says one or the other will gain at least a single delegate advantage by coming out on top.
The places where a candidate can pick up the most delegates -- for the least amount of TV spending --are smaller states that so far have been untouched by the presidential candidates. In part, this stems from a greater opportunity to define your candidate through television advertising, especially if the other candidate doesn't respond with ads of their own.
That’s why, for instance, Obama launched his Super Tuesday air war on January 18 with buys in Tennessee, Missouri, Connecticut and New Mexico; and why Clinton returned fire three days later with buys in Tennessee, Missouri, Arizona and central California.
The War Room
In the war rooms of both camps, there are media planners huddled over maps right now plotting the overlays of broadcast markets against congressional district borders.
The maps are surrounded by computer terminals. One is linked to an up-to-date database of all the TV and radio stations in America and the inventory they have available in various day parts.
Another inputs polling data showing where the candidate is running strongest, what groups favor him or her, what TV programs they watch, and what TV or radio stations reach out to masses of them.
A third computer connects to a video server where all the campaign commercials are stored. At the press of a button, the media planners can buy the time, select the commercial they want to run, upload it to the TV station’s FTP address, and the station will automatically insert it into the program they have purchased.
There are 1,681 Democratic delegates up for grabs Tuesday. Now it’s your turn to play. Where do you buy?
The Prize
The big prize is California and its 370 delegates. Along the Eastern seaboard, there are 495 more to be found in a swath of states running from Massachusetts through Connecticut to New York, New Jersey and Delaware. Obama’s home state of Illinois has 153 in play.
In the South, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Oklahoma will choose 352 delegates. Western primaries in Arizona, Utah and New Mexico will pick another 105. The seven caucus states will select the last 203.
One political consultant who does not have a horse in this race says his first advice to both camps would be avoid advertising in the caucus states.
Caucuses, by nature, draw only the most-committed party regulars. Advertising on TV wastes money on too many people who don’t matter. He would also skip Illinois, ceding it to Obama, and maybe Georgia, if polls show Obama prohibitively ahead.
As Obama and Clinton did, he would have started advertising early in the small states. “You have to start two week early or you’re wasting your money,” he says. “The focus has to be on California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. But that’s $10 million easy. It’s a huge problem, and I’m glad I don’t have it.”
California Dreaming
California is so big and sprawling, it’s hard to know where to start.
With 23 of California’s 53 congressional districts within signal range, Los Angeles is prime media territory – and costs about $1.5 million to buy.
One reason to stay out of Los Angeles is that people there have been subjected to so many fundraisers, debates and campaign rallies that a TV spot won’t make much difference.
One reason for Clinton to go in is to mobilize her support in the Latino community. So far, she’s stayed off the big stations preferring to get her message out on Spanish language radio and TV, and Obama has left it alone.
The San Francisco market is more fertile territory for Obama, but it comes with a $1 million price tag and only covers 11 congressional districts. Seven of them will send six delegates to the Democratic convention. The other four will have the odd-numbered five. Those 62 delegates alone, however, are more that can be won in 12 other states holding primaries Tuesday.
I would have expected Obama to buy San Francisco. Its liberal, college-educated and large student populations should be his base. But so far, no sign of an ad buy.
Now Sacramento, that’s a beautiful place. Clinton and Obama media planners love Sacramento. The city lies in the central valley of California, off the beaten track of the presidential campaign trail. Its TV and radio stations reach into seven congressional districts holding 32 delegates, and it only costs $296,000 a week.
The valley is one of the state’s most populous agricultural communities, so its farms and orchards are filled with migrant workers, many of whom have settled down as citizens. Clinton has the support of the Farm Workers Union and should do well there. But the valley is isolated from the media-saturated coast, so the television airwaves are a great place for Obama to engage her.
That's the calculation the Clinton and Obama air commanders are making in three California cities. Now imagine, making those same projections in the 21 other states.
Forget Everything I Just Told You
Sometimes this political race moves faster than I can write.
That “so far” I wrote so many times before in this piece looked right yesterday.
I awoke today to news that the Obama campaign has made a commercial out of Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement, and will run it in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Bostonn; and all the cable news channels.
That’s the same as going all in for $10 million in a Texas Hold ‘Em tournament.
Or, in the metaphor of this piece, dropping an atomic bomb on Hiroshima -- and hoping it explodes.
You take your eye off the 24-hour news cycle at your peril this year.
I know, as do you, in this Week Behind. Obama won South Carolina, McCain won Florida, Giuliani dropped out, Edwards suspended his campaign, and the Kennedys made an endorsement (as did Gen. Schwartzkopf, but that’s neither here nor there.)
It was a good week in the news cycle for Obama, and Axelrod played the Kennedy endorsement to the hilt.
An op-ed page piece by Caroline Kennedy Sunday in The New York Times, a press conference that looked like a family reunion Monday when Ted Kennedy gave his endorsement, and (surprise) a national TV spot Wednesday all but saying John F. Kennedy has from the grave passed the torch to a new generation.
I suspect many weeks of planning back in the campaign office went into snagging the endorsement, and the perfect timing – one week before Super Tuesday – was no accidental news break.
On the one hand, it’s another illustration of how well-integrated Obama’s strategy and organization are.
On the other, it calls to mind an expression William Goldman once used to describe the movie business in California.
“Nobody knows nothing.”
Myself included. But I'm on the outside looking in.
